Nograles, Coup-Me and the cha-cha backdoor

While most of us huddle in our tambayans, speculating on what really happened to Trina Etong, a group of politicians are busy trying to invent ways on how to circumvent the Constitution and for what? Speaker Prospero Nograles’ group is trying to “test the waters” so to speak so that his proposal to allow foreign ownership of Philippine lands pass Congressional scrutiny. Nograles wants to include a proviso in his proposal by delimiting the coverage of the change in the charter “by just this one—change in the economic provisions”. And he wants his theory tested by allowing his detractors to file a Constitutional question before the Supreme Court, confident that, in the end, it would be the “kampihan” (camaraderie)  that would prevail instead of plain and simple, katarungan (justice).

It is an elementary principle in Constitutional Law that any change in the charter shall only be done in either a Constitutional convention or a Constituent Assembly. Changes cannot be piecemeal and deemed enacted by legislative or executive fiat. It must undergo a process whereby all members of Congress (both the Senate and the Lower House, voting separately) are involved. As contemplated by the Constitutionalists, the House will gather its votes and decide, while at the same time, the Senate votes as a collegial body. If the measure passes in the House but is rejected by the Senate, then, it not deemed enacted. Rather, it would be brought back to the House and the same procedure happens again.

It would be easier if Congress allows a Constitutional Convention, which, by the lack of time, is impossible to happen if the desire is simply to extend the term of Mrs. Arroyo.

Nograles just wants to use the back door in order to complete his mission for the Arroyos. He knows that his neck is on the line on this one and he does’nt want to disappoint his benefactor, Mike and his son, Mikey Arroyo. It’s quite obvious though that he’ll fail since majority of the LAKAS-CMD and some members of the KAMPI disagree with efforts to amend the charter at this time. In fact, LAKAS-CMD spokesman Juan Miguel Zubiri and even Presidential Political Adviser Gabriel Claudio have been telling Nograles and his cohorts to abandon charter change and concentrate on fortifying the administration block to prevent an expected Opposition win in 2010.

With so little time left, Nograles has no other option but to force the issue down our very throats. He’ll proceed by testing the waters and armed with 187 votes, he’ll try to ram his ridiculous suggestion and then, throw the ball to the Supreme Court. That’s a shrewed way of telling Malacanang that he’s like Pontius Pilate, washing his filthy hands and distancing himself from the unpopular decision.

And Nograles and his ilk might simply succeed in their tug of war. Otherwise, if all stops are lifted, Arroyo’s devilish clan, especially those hawks in the palace, might simply proceed with their Plan B, which is subject the entire country under martial law thru a “God Save the Dirty Queen.”

The Revolt for Hope

Two bishops have called upon the people to join the mammoth rally this Sunday, November 30, 2008. Heeding the clarion call, the Makati Business Club (MBC) and other civil society groups are also calling for people to go to the streets and protest the current efforts of this administration to extend Gloria’s term.

A few days prior, detained Senator Antonio Trillianes called upon the people to support the impeachment complaint against Gloria. Saying it’s the last legal option to oust the Pinay anti-Christ, Trillianes says it is still possible for the democratic soldiers to “intervene” into this political mess and rectify these errors wrought against the people by this evil administration.

Question that everybody is asking–will there be a realization of the People’s dream for the ouster of Gloria? Rumours say, a big event will happen on the 28th of November, the day when Gloria comes back from her Latin American trip. Others say, the 30th of this month will signal a week-long “Revolution of Hope” and would culminate with Gloria’s ouster.

Observing what’s happening, I think that the thirtieth will just be the proverbial first shout that would culminate to Gloria’s eventual ouster before January 2009. There are very auspicious signs which point to a weakening of Gloria’s defenses by December 2008. The apex of the people’s sentiments may be reached next month as Congress formalizes the killing of the impeachment, a symbolic act which could trigger widespread dissillusionment and cause the justification of a December affair.

Or, it could be prolonged to January of next year. If the forces against Gloria succeeds in ousting her in January or weaken her pro-cha-cha forces in the first quarter of 2009, kiss charter change goodbye. People behind Gloria will definitely not be able to implement their dastardly plot in summer, since there will not be sufficient time to effect charter change.

Unbeknownest to Gloria, the more anti-charter change proponents delay the hearing of the cha-cha proposals, the lesser the prospects for Gloria to extend her term. Surely, they cannot ram cha-cha in June of 2009 simply because Congressmen will be busy by then for their re-election campaign. So, the critical months begins in December and ends in March 2009 or the month where Congress adjourns. However, there is another card which Gloria’s minions are contemplating and that is the emergency power card. These Malacanang hawks will try to implement black operations, will try to portray lawlessness in the Metro and in Mindanao and justify it. Like charter change, however, they are also pressed for time since they need to muster enough support from the AFP to do this. Surely, the defense secretary will not be a party to this, since Danding’s party, if reports are to be believed, is aligning itself with the JDV-FVR faction in Lakas.