A survey commissioned by a very prominent business group was held just recently and based on those results, almost half of the Filipino electorate favors Noynoy Aquino, over other candidates.

In fact, Noynoy’s ratings are more than half higher that what Senator Manny Villar got (16%), or former president Joseph Estrada’s ratings (14%) and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero’s (12%). All other candidates got lower ratings.

For Noynoy’s supporters, this high ratings affirm earlier gut feelings that there is still a “Cory Magic”. That people are still highly convinced that Noynoy deserves to be elected president than all the rest of the candidates.

However, there’s a downside to this.

Remember that there is still eight more months to go before D-Day. A 49% ratings is not insurmountable. In fact, it is more dangerous for Noynoy to get a very high ratings like this, at the first try. Why?

There are many imponderables in politics and many things could happen that could affect Noynoy’s ratings. And eight months is still a long way to go.

What this high ratings just mean is there really is a “groundswell” of support behind a Noynoy candidacy. And half of the electorate constitutes that groundswell.

That there is a Noynoy constituency is a given. The question really is—is this very high ratings sustainable?

Electoral history shows a downside. When a candidate gets a very high ratings in the first try, he needs to work doubly hard than other candidates to sustain this trust rating. He needs more logistics support, more personnel out in the field to organize those amorphous supportive masses, and more propaganda than his nearest rival.

For me, better if Noynoy got a “decent ratings” of about 20 or even a 30% rather than a 49% because a 49% is very hard to sustain over a course of ten more months.

A 49% probably reflects a peak, not a trough. Better if Noynoy’s ratings slowly increase over time, instead of it decrease from a high 49% ratings. If Noynoy peaked early, just like what happened to Mar Roxas, Chiz Escudero or even Noli de Castro, that is most worrisome. It just showed that those ratings are “emotion” backed, and people just reacted because of that Cory funeral spectacle.

There is a solution to this though.

If the Opposition unites, and Erap agrees to lend his support behind Noynoy and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) does the same, then, that’s it for other candidates. Those support groups would greatly help sustain a majority vote for Noynoy and carry him throughout the electoral fight.

This will send a very strong message from the people that Noynoy’s support is no fluke and represents a real cry of the people for massive change.

Many observers feel that the next target of the Liberal Party seems to be Joseph Estrada. They want the former president to abandon his plans of running for the presidency in 2010. Insiders over at the Liberal says that Makati mayor Jejomar Binay is willing to broker the deal between the two sides.

Tondo and Payatas are Erap’s traditional bailiwicks. During the 1998 elections, Erap got most of the votes here. And when he went out of office in 2001, most of those who tried to raid Malacanang came from these two areas.

Now, if Noynoy thinks that he can just barge in there and take whatever he wants to take, that, for me, is a tall order. Erap has build a sizeable constituency in those places and it would be very hard for Noynoy to break that hold.

I still believe though, that Noynoy and his party can still convince Erap to withdraw provided that (1) they show a credible survey which proves that the people really want Noynoy to run and (2) that, if and when Noynoy runs, he’ll continue the legacy of Erap by forming a coalition government.

I had a chance to meet the good Congressman last night during a bloggers’ night affair at Bo’s Cafe at High Street. I was late for about an hour, stuck in Magallanes Makati traffic for two. Yet, when I arrived, I saw many of my fellow bloggers (most of them are very young), conversing with this man dressed in simple clothes.

Looks can be very deceiving though, for Ruffy Biazon is not a simple man. What I meant by that is, he’s powerful, having served as a legislator for many years and exerts tremendous influence not just in his district, but throughout the country. Through his active participation in reformist politics, Ruffy Biazon cuts himself above the rest. Biazon always side with the people.

For example, Ruffy Biazon opposes the right to reply bill, saying that this smacks of authoritarian legislation. In a democracy, says Ruffy, you have the right to express yourself and this right is inalienable.

He also favors the Reproductive Health bill and sees nothing wrong with it. What’s so extraordinary about him is Ruffy spends time explaining the measure to ordinary Filipinos who see nothing more to it than a rationale for abortion. There was a time, says Ruffy, that a woman remarked that the bill is a measure to rationalize abortion. Ruffy got his copy of the bill and explained it to the woman whom, after a few minutes, understood what the measure is, really.

And like other politicians, Ruffy wants the charter amended. He sees that some provisions of the charter do not conform with the times. He’s not referring to those economic provisions, but rather, on those political provisions which deter the growth and rationalization of government institutions.

What is so unique about Ruffy—he has a prescription on how we can curb graft and corruption–and that is, if we can only change the personal beliefs and values of our leaders.

Ruffy Biazon is a devout Christian. He shuns politics especially on Sundays but does his work 24/7. Ruffy, along with his beautiful wife (who also attended the bloggers’ night but did not take part in the discussions and just sat a few feet away, typing away with her Macbook), attends Church regularly. Says Ruffy, if he can just attend Church twice or thrice a week, he’ll do it.

But, Ruffy, like the rest of us, is no saint. He does not aspire to be one, only to be a servant of the People.

Religion and adherence to God is the bedrock of Ruffy Biazon’s beliefs. But, don’t you worry—he’s no Panlilio nor a Velarde. Ruffy believes in God because for him, that belief puts his feet firmly on the ground. The reason why his name is never mentioned in any Vera Files or PCIJ corruption reports (unlike colleague Mikey Arroyo) is that Ruffy believes that everyone is accountable to his God.

That, whatever you do, God sees you. If you steal, though no one knows it, God sees it. Whatever its real or not, the point is, everyone is accountable, somehow and somewhat to a Higher being–whether its God or the people–it does not really matter. What matters is, as a legislator, Ruffy Biazon believes that he’s accountable and stealing public money is not just a sin but a crime in the eyes of the people and a dirty mark to the legacy of the Biazon political trademark.

Ruffy, by the way, is running as a senator this coming elections. He’ll be under the Liberal Party. Mark his name in your voting machine. That would probably be the one thing you can do for your country.

Kris Aquino cries beside her brother Noynoy during Cory's necro rites

Kris Aquino vowed to work hard to generate funds for his brother Noynoy’s presidential campaign. Today, Noynoy announced his intention to run and his act has thrown a monkey wrench in the Philippine political scene. Noynoy is reportedly reluctant but after a retreat, decided to heed the so-called “people’s call” for him to run for the presidency.

Kris said that the Aquino family will support Noynoy’s bid. And they want to contribute to Noynoy’s campaign kitty to lessen Noynoy’s dependence on third party contributions.

By the way, there were rumours that Mar Roxas’ fiancee Korina Sanchez is angry with Kris for supporting her boyfriend’s political nemesis, Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan. Remember that it was Kiko who led Liberal Party members from supporting Mar’s bid and publicly, Korina is angry with the Pangilinans.

Korina, some say, is also reportedly angry with Kris for siding with the Pangilinans. Is Korina still harboring ill-feelings for what had happened to her soon-to-be husband? Is Korina still bitter with what happened?

Who is actually egging Noynoy to run? Is it the entire Filipino people? Or those people behind the Liberal Party? The Liberal Party is trying to involve as many people as possible for this but, it seems that their efforts are again, falling by the wayside. That’s the problem with re-creating history—the first is always better than the sequel.

Why are we so fond of emulating what Americans did or why do we always relish the idea of replicating a success story when it’s always better to create something fresh and new?

Noynoy right now is re-tracing the steps of his mother, by doing the same things that her iconic mother did before she went into battle with Macoy. Many people, especially the CBCP thinks its touche. Some, however, think, it’s a bad idea. In fact, many people see this as what we Filipinos call “hinihinog sa pilit.”

Come to think of it, who really urged Noynoy to run? Is it really the Filipino People? If its the people, do we have concrete evidence that most of us really want him to run? Aside from those sheets of yellow paper that Ed Roces gave people to sign their names with, are there other proof that majority of us, Filipinos, really want him to sacrifice his personal freedoms and become our president?

If you listen quite closely, you’ll find that only those who are either aligned with or sympathizes with the Liberal Party that says Noynoy is the one. Think about it. The rest of us Filipinos are not quite gaga over the idea simply because either we’re already too pragmatic or we know that these times are quite different from Cory’s.

Don’t get me wrong. I want the best president to win, someone who really has the vision, the political will and the exact opposite of the one who sits illegally in that chair beside the Pasig. But, I don’t want to say that I chose the lesser evil. Or, I don’t want to arrive at a conclusion that I am voting into office someone who will just perpetuate elite domination at the expense of the majority.

This elections is not about personalities, I agree. It is about principles. It is about letting New Transformative Politics replace the existing old and traditional politics.

For many days now, I have been in deep contemplation. Unlike Noynoy, however, I am not about to consult my God for this one. I want to consult my people, whom I regard as the best political analyst in this country. What is their pulse? What are their feelings about this? And I don’t agree that if Noynoy fails in this, that’s the end of the New Transformative Politics. No. The struggle for a True, Just and Humane Filipino society will thrive with or without Noynoy.

Noynoy may be the candidate with a clean record, but so does Nicanor Perlas, and he’s not getting the same reaction compared with Cory’s son. Maybe because Perlas is not a Liberal and he does not have the machinery. But, he, indeed, has the principles and probably the best platform compared with all the rest of the candidates. And if this is really an election that would pit ideas against other ideas, then, Perlas deserves more of our attention than say, Noynoy who still does not have any.

Or, maybe the founder of the Young Officers’ Union (YOU), my friend, Dado Valeroso, deserves more of our attention than what we’re giving Noynoy. Valeroso has the academic credentials (MA from AIM). He sacrificed his life for the vision he believed in and even gave his career up just to build a New Society. And he silently wants to declare his candidacy for the presidency. Or, maybe Capt. Nicanor Faeldon deserves more of those adulations we heap on Noynoy. He’s still out there on the run, convincing people of the viability of struggling against an illegal regime and getting nothing of the praises some people are giving Noynoy.

In the end I hate to say this, but we are being conditioned by media to accept Noynoy as the best alternative candidate. And probably he is. I just sincerely fear that Noynoy is being used by forces bigger than us who has vested interests, like the Lopezes whose power were marginalized under Arroyo. Or, maybe those businessmen controlling Makati wanted him to run to protect their businesses in case an Estrada or a Villar wins.

But, of course, if we, indeed want a Noynoy, then, why only now that we realize it and not before when we were on the verge of victory over Arroyo? Maybe, Conrad is right that Noynoy is destined for this. Maybe he really is the anointed. But, what are those things which Noynoy stands for? For freedom? For democracy? Or the perpetuation of elite rule?