It’s Erap vs. Villar in 2010

August 26, 2009 § Leave a comment

erap-estradaThe release of the September survey results will make, or break, the ambitions and careers of aspirants to the presidency. For one, these surveys are barometers so to speak of public preferences and normally used by political investors as basis for their support.

Now, there seems to be a resurgence of the Erap magic since the former president has consistently shown resiliency in ratings game. His ratings are rising and could overtake Villar’s as what some analysts say. Erap has broken into the 20 plus percentage levels and stands to actually gain some more percentage points in the weeks to come. While his rivals, particularly Mar Roxas, continues to slide further down the ratings game despite massive ads and propaganda campaigns.

hed01_pic01It seems that Mar’s grassroots and even his hold over the ABC classes is splitting and benefitting Erap’s, Villar’s and to some extent, Chiz. Mar Roxas is losing considerable ground support, probably due to a lot of factors, namely organizational support and poor messaging. The Liberal Party should admit that Mar is a losing proposition since he faces two very formidable challenges in his campaign: lack of a solid machinery and a plateau-ing support base.

Having said that Erap stands to gain most from Mar Roxas’ eventual diminution, since Mar enjoys some support from the D class, but weak in the ABC class and E class. If Erap merges his party with that of Chiz’s, he may eventually overtake Villar who enjoys silent support from some administration partymembers. That automatically gives Erap at least half of Chiz’s ABC constituency and probably all of his C-D class constituency.

Now, is the Lakas-KAMPI CMD still a major force to contend with and do they have the strength to “neutralize” an expected Erap victory? I doubt it since like the Liberal Party, Lakas KAMPI CMD is now slowly breaking up. The touted “organizational strength” of the party is crumbling under the sheer weight of perceptions of illegitimacy. Now, will a De Castro campaign change their fate? I sincerely doubt it since considerable ground has already been lost due to the “indecisiveness” of De Castro. De Castro’s natural constituency is slowly being eaten up by the aggressive organizational onslaught of Erap’s JEEP NI ERAP.

Fortunes could change however, if Villar chooses to coalesce with De Castro under the Nacionalista NOT under LAKAS-KAMPI CMD. That, in itself, is a stronger counterforce against Erap. But, will it be enough to secure victory?

Honestly, I doubt it. Let’s prepare for an Erap restoration this early.

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