49% of Filipinos favor a Noynoy presidency…for now

September 13, 2009 § Leave a comment

noynoy2If elections are held today, 49% of Filipinos would definitely elect Senator Noynoy Aquino as president. That is worrisome, especially since actual elections are still eight more months to go.

A survey commissioned by a very prominent business group was held just recently and based on those results, almost half of the Filipino electorate favors Noynoy Aquino, over other candidates.

In fact, Noynoy’s ratings are more than half higher that what Senator Manny Villar got (16%), or former president Joseph Estrada’s ratings (14%) and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero’s (12%). All other candidates got lower ratings.

For Noynoy’s supporters, this high ratings affirm earlier gut feelings that there is still a “Cory Magic”. That people are still highly convinced that Noynoy deserves to be elected president than all the rest of the candidates.

However, there’s a downside to this.

Remember that there is still eight more months to go before D-Day. A 49% ratings is not insurmountable. In fact, it is more dangerous for Noynoy to get a very high ratings like this, at the first try. Why?

There are many imponderables in politics and many things could happen that could affect Noynoy’s ratings. And eight months is still a long way to go.

What this high ratings just mean is there really is a “groundswell” of support behind a Noynoy candidacy. And half of the electorate constitutes that groundswell.

That there is a Noynoy constituency is a given. The question really is—is this very high ratings sustainable?

Electoral history shows a downside. When a candidate gets a very high ratings in the first try, he needs to work doubly hard than other candidates to sustain this trust rating. He needs more logistics support, more personnel out in the field to organize those amorphous supportive masses, and more propaganda than his nearest rival.

For me, better if Noynoy got a “decent ratings” of about 20 or even a 30% rather than a 49% because a 49% is very hard to sustain over a course of ten more months.

A 49% probably reflects a peak, not a trough. Better if Noynoy’s ratings slowly increase over time, instead of it decrease from a high 49% ratings. If Noynoy peaked early, just like what happened to Mar Roxas, Chiz Escudero or even Noli de Castro, that is most worrisome. It just showed that those ratings are “emotion” backed, and people just reacted because of that Cory funeral spectacle.

There is a solution to this though.

If the Opposition unites, and Erap agrees to lend his support behind Noynoy and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) does the same, then, that’s it for other candidates. Those support groups would greatly help sustain a majority vote for Noynoy and carry him throughout the electoral fight.

This will send a very strong message from the people that Noynoy’s support is no fluke and represents a real cry of the people for massive change.

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