Loren Legarda’s Dilemma

October 16, 2009 § Leave a comment

votersLoren Legarda, the top brand name in the 2007 Senatorial race, must decide and act fast. Her ratings are slipping away. And I know what ails the only environmentalist Senator of the land. She knows she has a very solid and very high support base. And being second when you know you can win is an agonizing place to be in.

If you look at the SWS survey ratings from September 2008 to September 2009, she has a very high support base of 24%—higher than Chiz Escudero who is being touted as the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) standard bearer and even of Erap’s (only 13.5%). Escudero has been her most ardent suitor. While Gibo Teodoro is just waiting in the wings for her to say “Yes!” (Gibo, by the way, has a dismal 1% consistent mass base support). Manny Villar is still just some few feet away, fiddling with his big bucks.

Why will I agree to run as second fiddle when my average mass support is higher than all these suitors of mine, says Legarda? Quite understandable, if I would say so.

Loren’s dilemma is actually more of a perception issue rather than a winnability issue. The perception is, Loren’s chances are slim because people would not prefer another woman president. This wrong perception affects funding support behind her candidacy. Of course, without campaign funds, how would she run?

Legarda’s mass base support is very consistent unlike those of Chiz and Estrada’s whose support bases are vascillating and probably, even of Noynoy’s whose support base is still amorphous at this point. A 2o-plus percent mass base is nothing to sneeze at. In a five or even six-cornered fight, this could win elections!

Yet, the reality on the ground runs counter to these survey findings. Political funders have their sights trained on supporting a male president.

Now, an unsolicited advice to Ms. Legarda—think STRATEGIC.

Run as vice president with someone with the machinery—regardless of party affiliation. If you run as NPC vice president, Chiz would only use your mass base to bolster his. If you run as Manny Villar’s second fiddle, the same thing. Yet, if you run under Teodoro’s party, you will still preserve your constituency PLUS enjoy using a big party machinery capable of trouncing a Mar Roxas.

It’s your call.

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