49% of Filipinos favor a Noynoy presidency…for now

If elections are held today, 49% of Filipinos would definitely elect Senator Noynoy Aquino as president. That is worrisome, especially since actual elections are still eight more months to go.

A survey commissioned by a very prominent business group was held just recently and based on those results, almost half of the Filipino electorate favors Noynoy Aquino, over other candidates.

In fact, Noynoy’s ratings are more than half higher that what Senator Manny Villar got (16%), or former president Joseph Estrada’s ratings (14%) and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero’s (12%). All other candidates got lower ratings.

For Noynoy’s supporters, this high ratings affirm earlier gut feelings that there is still a “Cory Magic”. That people are still highly convinced that Noynoy deserves to be elected president than all the rest of the candidates.

However, there’s a downside to this.

Remember that there is still eight more months to go before D-Day. A 49% ratings is not insurmountable. In fact, it is more dangerous for Noynoy to get a very high ratings like this, at the first try. Why?

There are many imponderables in politics and many things could happen that could affect Noynoy’s ratings. And eight months is still a long way to go.

What this high ratings just mean is there really is a “groundswell” of support behind a Noynoy candidacy. And half of the electorate constitutes that groundswell.

That there is a Noynoy constituency is a given. The question really is—is this very high ratings sustainable?

Electoral history shows a downside. When a candidate gets a very high ratings in the first try, he needs to work doubly hard than other candidates to sustain this trust rating. He needs more logistics support, more personnel out in the field to organize those amorphous supportive masses, and more propaganda than his nearest rival.

For me, better if Noynoy got a “decent ratings” of about 20 or even a 30% rather than a 49% because a 49% is very hard to sustain over a course of ten more months.

A 49% probably reflects a peak, not a trough. Better if Noynoy’s ratings slowly increase over time, instead of it decrease from a high 49% ratings. If Noynoy peaked early, just like what happened to Mar Roxas, Chiz Escudero or even Noli de Castro, that is most worrisome. It just showed that those ratings are “emotion” backed, and people just reacted because of that Cory funeral spectacle.

There is a solution to this though.

If the Opposition unites, and Erap agrees to lend his support behind Noynoy and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) does the same, then, that’s it for other candidates. Those support groups would greatly help sustain a majority vote for Noynoy and carry him throughout the electoral fight.

This will send a very strong message from the people that Noynoy’s support is no fluke and represents a real cry of the people for massive change.

Noynoy visits Payatas and Tondo—cutting Erap’s territory in half?

Senator Noynoy Aquino just visited two of former president Joseph Estrada’s known political territories—Payatas in Quezon City and Tondo in Manila. These two are symbols of Philippine poverty. Whenever we talk about poverty here in this country, we always say that it’s either Tondo or Payatas or both.

Many observers feel that the next target of the Liberal Party seems to be Joseph Estrada. They want the former president to abandon his plans of running for the presidency in 2010. Insiders over at the Liberal says that Makati mayor Jejomar Binay is willing to broker the deal between the two sides.

Tondo and Payatas are Erap’s traditional bailiwicks. During the 1998 elections, Erap got most of the votes here. And when he went out of office in 2001, most of those who tried to raid Malacanang came from these two areas.

Now, if Noynoy thinks that he can just barge in there and take whatever he wants to take, that, for me, is a tall order. Erap has build a sizeable constituency in those places and it would be very hard for Noynoy to break that hold.

I still believe though, that Noynoy and his party can still convince Erap to withdraw provided that (1) they show a credible survey which proves that the people really want Noynoy to run and (2) that, if and when Noynoy runs, he’ll continue the legacy of Erap by forming a coalition government.

Mar Roxas gallantly gave way to Noynoy

Last night, I was there when Mar Roxas withdrew from the presidential race. When Mar announced that he’ll be supporting Noynoy Aquino’s bid for the presidency, I sincerely felt sorry for him. For one, I know how hard he campaigned, how sincere his intentions are for the country and how huge his expenditures were just to realize his dream.

Sacrificing a personal ambition is never easy. It entails a great deal of steely will and courage to do so.

Honestly, I felt a tinge of sadness when I witnessed the event of Mar’s declaration at Club Filipino. When he dropped the bombshell, I felt that it was too early. Mar was affected by the treachery of organizations who once gave him his support. Mar may have felt betrayed by the promises of those political hangers-on and opportunists who see the glint of money what with a billionaire running for the top post.

Mar will be missed.